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The NBA’s second season starts tomorrow with the 2024 NBA Playoffs. The NBA regular season is always though to bet with players out, being rested and suffering from questionable motivation in a long 82 game campaign. The Playoffs are really a whole different animal. Here are a few tips and trends for betting the NBA Playoffs.

Place wagers Early, especially on opening matchups
Major line movements are commonplace in the NBA Playoffs. We have historically seen NBA playoff game point totals move 3 or more points and had small favorites turn into small dogs by tip off. The value is betting before these lines move. The Nuggets opened as Game 1 favorites of 3 points and are already 4.5 favorites at BetOnline with the game more than 24 hours away. Milwaukee is currently a dog following the news of Giannis’ calf injury.

Game Twos
Teams that are favored to win a series don’t always win Game 1 and those losing teams are generally a solid wager in the second game of the series. When the lower seed wins game 1, the higher seeded team, playing at home, has won the second game at a better than 75% clip.

Look at betting Under the Total
In 5 of the last seven seasons betting under the total in NBA playoff games has been profitable. Of course, you can’t blindly bet Playoff unders, but more intense games with more defense leans that way. Though bookmakers do adjust playoff totals down to account for that, the public still loves to be overs. The strategy of betting under is especially effective late in a series after teams become more familiar with one another and both teams are a bit worn down. Game 7s have the added pressure of giving teams a chance to advance. Since 2005, Game 7 unders are 32-21, hitting at 61.1%.

Use these points as a guide, keeping in mind, that the bookmaker knows these trends as well.  Situational plays and betting early are two of the key ways to win betting the NBA playoffs.