As the NFL season progresses, as contenders rise to the top, pretenders are identified and bad teams start getting exploited, oddsmakers tend to widen the lines between the cream of the crop and the bottom of the barrel. This weekend has two double-digit point spread games – the Colts at home are favored by at least 14 and a half points over the 1-6 Titans and the Chiefs are more than a 12 point favorite again at home vs the Jayden Daniels-less Commanders.

So do you bet Chiefs and Colts because of the huge perceived disparity in the opponents?  Not so fast . . .

Double-digit underdogs tend to cover about 55% of the time going back over 30 years, but in the last 4 years, due to less-inflated lines and a more efficient betting market it is still around 53%.

So, bet underdogs when the lines move in your favor, especially involving a key number, like from +9.5 to +10.5. Players love betting strong favorites like the Chiefs, Bills, Packers, etc. so those favorites tend have more inflated lines, especially late. And, Road vs. home dogs show an extra small variance; home double-digit dogs cover 3% more at home.

Bet Favorites when they have Elite Defenses or face a backup Quarterback. Of if their opponent is tanking or it’s late in the season and playoff motivation matters. Look to bet any strong favorite early, before the line gets inflated.

So, the Betting Minute this Halloween season is to beware the double-digit dog, and don’t just blindly bet the dog anymore. Look at the line movement and the personnel on the field for both the fave and the dog.

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